Preparing for the Worst: Bioterrorism

Whereas an effective terrorist attack involving chemical agents could cause tens or hundreds of thousands of casualties, an effective attack using biological pathogens1 could result in millions. It is well known that members of the Al Qaeda organization have sought to acquire biological agents for attack and have contacts with states that process biological weapons programs. The anthrax2 attacks that followed the September 11 attacks effectively ended the debate about or not terrorists could acquire and use biological agents. They done so and they will continue to do so.

The good news is that biological pathogens are generally difficult to weaponries - that is, it is difficult to take them from a laboratory, prooduce them in large quantities, and turn them into a form that can be effectively dispersed3 to cause mass casualties. The bad news is that terrorists would need only a small quantity of a highly contagious4 pathogen like smallpox5 to infect enough people to cause mass casualties. Each infected individual, in effect, would become a walking biological weapon - a danger whose dimensions are magnified m our modern, mobile society. A local bio-attack could quickly become a national crisis with the potential to destroy the country.

Today's security measures are not adequate to prevent the theft of Dangerous pathogens. Furthermore, literally tons of Cold War-era biological weapons agents are easy to obtain.

In addition, we are ill prepared to prevent the dire consequences of a large-scale bioterrorism attack. We currently lack the stockpiles6 of VfBfcines⁷ and antibiotics⁸ and the means of rapid distribution that would be required for an effective response. We also lack trained and equipped cadres of first responders to cope with such a crisis.

Our governments also lack adequate management strategies, plans, information systems to cope with a bioterrorism attack.

The less prepared we are for a bioterrorism event, the greater the fame that is likely to follow, and the more threats there will be to civil liberties and people's lives.

Only by preparing for this worst case scenario can we hope to limit in consequences.

Abridged from Kurt M Campbell, Michele A. Flournoy. "To Prevail"

State-supported Terrorism

The Secretary of State maintains a list of countries that have "repeatedly provided support for acts of international terrorism." The information for this list is drawn from the intelligence community.1 Listed countries are subject to severe U.S. export controls, particularly of dual use technology, and selling them military equipment is prohibited. Providing foreign aid is also prohibited.

In 2000, seven countries were on the "terrorism list": Cuba, Iran, Iraq, Libya, North Korea, Sudan and Syria.

Of the seven, five are Middle Eastern nations with predominantly Muslim populations. Of these on one end of the spectrum Iran and Iraq could currently be characterized as extreme active supporters of terrorism: nations that use terrorism as an instrument of policy or warfare beyond their borders. Iran, Iraq, and Libya are major oil producers, producing in 1999 about 11% of the world's oil consumption, 35% of Europe's oil imports, and 10.8% of Japan's imports. Such dependence on oil complicates universal support for sanctions against these nations.

Countries such as Cuba or North Korea, which at the height of the Cold War were more active, could be placed at the other end of the spectrum. In recent years, however, they have seemed to settle for the more passive role of granting safe haven to previously admitted individual terrorists. Sudan, which continues to serve as a safe haven for members of terrorist groups, has shut down their training camps and is engaged with the Department of State in ongoing dialogue on anti-terrorism issues. Closer to the middle of an active/passive spectrum is Libya, which grants safe haven to wanted terrorists. Syria, though not formally detected in an active role since 1986, reportedly serves as the primary transit point for terrorists and for the resupply of weapons to terrorist groups in the Middle East. The Syrian Government has continued to provide political and limited material support to a number of Palestinian groups, including allowing them to maintain headquarters or offices in Damascus. These facts place it somewhere in the middle to active end of the spectrum.

A complex challenge faces those charged with compiling and maintaining the list. Removing a country from the list is likely to result in some level of confrontation with Congress, so the bureaucratically easier solution is to maintain the status quo, or add to the list, but not to delete from it.

Despite significant international pressure the seven state sponsors of terrorism - Cuba, Iran, Iraq, Libya, North Korea, Syria, and Sudan - in 2002 did not take all the actions necessary to disassociate themselves fully from their ties to terrorism. While some of these countries have taken steps to cooperate in the global war on terrorism, most have also continued the very actions that led them to be declared state sponsors.

"Congressional Research Service " 2000

Al Qa'ida Around the Globe

Authorities believe Al Qa'Ida worked on its own and with the Egyptian Islamic Jihad and other alleged terrorist organizations in at least 60 countries, including the United States.

Al Qa'ida was established by Usama Bin Ladin in the late 1980s to bring together Arabs who fought in Afghanistan against the Soviet invasion. It helped finance, recruit, transport, and train Sunni Islamic extremists for the Afghan resistance. The current goal of the organization is to establish a pan-Islamic Caliphate throughout the world by working with allied Islamic extremist groups to overthrow regimes it considers "non-Islamic" and expelling Westerners and non-Muslims from Muslim countries. It issued statement under the banner of "The World Islamic Front for Jihad against the Jews and Crusaders" 2 in February 1998, saying it was the duty of all Muslims to kill U.S. citizens - civilian or military - and their allies everywhere.

It plotted terrorist attacks against U.S. and Israeli tourists visiting Jordan for millennial celebrations. It conducted the bombings in August 1998 of the U.S. Embassies in Nairobi, Kenya, and Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, that killed at least 301 persons and injured more than 5000 others. Al-Qa'ida claims to have shot down U.S. helicopters and killed U.S. servicemen in Somalia in 1993 and to have conducted three bombings that targeted U.S. troops in Aden, Yemen, in December 1992. The following plans were not carried out: the assassination of Pope John Paul II during his visit to Manila in late 1994, simultaneous bombings of the U.S. and Israeli Embassies in Manila and other Asian capitals in late

1994, the bombing of a dozen U.S. trans-Pacific flights in 1995, and assassination of President Clinton during a visit to the Philippines in early

1995. The organization continues to train, finance and provide logistic support to terrorist groups in support of these goals.

It may have several hundred to several thousand members and serves as a focal point or umbrella organization for a worldwide network that includes many Sunni Islamic extremist groups such as al-Jihad3, some members of al-Gama'at al-Islamiyya,4 the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan5 and the Harakat ul-Mujahidin.⁶

Al-Qaida has a worldwide reach, has cells in a number of countries, and is strengthened through its ties to Sunni extremist networks. Bin Ladin and his key lieutenants reside in Afghanistan, where the group maintains terrorist training camps there.

Bin Ladin, son of a billionaire Saudi family, is said to have inherited approximately $300 million that he uses to finance the group. Al-Qaida also maintains moneymaking front organizations, solicits donations from like-minded supporters, and illicitly siphons funds from donations to Muslim charitable organizations.

Kurt M.Campbell MicheleA. Flournoy "To Prevail"