Ershad Ahmad Siyer, Master

Afghanistan and Central Asian (After USSR): Challenges and Opportunities

Kazan Federal University

Abstract: The main importance of the article is mainly about opportunities and challenges which both side Afghanistan and countries of Central Asia are facing whether it’s in geopolitics, economics, culture, security or regional and international issues. During the study there are factors pointed out and the main emphasis is on these opportunities and challenges after USSR till now.

Keywords: Central Asia; Afghanistan; challenges and opportunities.

Introduction: The post-Soviet Central Asian Republics have an area of approximately 3,500,000 km2(2/3 of the area of the EU) occupied by Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan ,with a population of almost 60 million people of more than one hundred ethnicities. Following the Soviet withdrawal in 1989, Afghanistan deteriorated into a brutal civil war between rival mujahedeen groups, many of which had spent much of their energy fighting each other even during the height of the anti-Soviet jihad. This civil war claimed thousands of lives and decimated the country’s infrastructure. The civil war intensified after a mujahedeen group took Kabul in April 1992. Saudi Arabia invested heavily in the region, most notably funding madrassas (religious boarding schools) in Pakistan that sought to spread the conservative Wahhabi version of Islam practiced in the Saudi kingdom. There are several factors which make Central Asia vital regions on the stage of world politics. Firstly, this part of the world is a powerhouse of energy resources, such as oil and natural gas. Secondly, the geopolitical location of these areas hosts the “New Silk Road”, an important trade route between China and Europe and sits on the doorstep of China and Russia. Thirdly, Afghanistan can also be regarded as a source of possible threats to neighboring countries and other countries of the world because of its illegal drug production and trafficking, and terrorism and in other hand can be an opportunity and corridor of trade because of the it’s geopolitical location. Security problems in Central Asia at the beginning of the XXI century became more relevant after the launch of the “Operation Enduring Freedom” and deployment of coalition troops of International Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan. In 2003, NATO formally took over command of the ISAF in Afghanistan. The situation in Afghanistan especially has a great influence on Central Asia. At first, three out of five countries of Central Asia such as Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan have the direct borders with Afghanistan. Secondly, among 4 largest ethnic groups two like Tajiks and Uzbeks are the titular ethnic groups of the neighboring countries. Thirdly, the main routs of drug trafficking from Afghanistan go through Central Asia. And fourthly, Afghanistan is a firm base to spread radical Islamism into Central Asia.

Methodological Framework:The methodological basis of my article is mainly on opportunities and challenges and two sided influences of Afghanistan and central Asia’s countries on each other’s situation. And I discussed the situation of each central Asian country one be one separately beginning with the important and vital for Afghanistan.

Opportunities and Challenges:

Uzbekistan, The most powerful neighbors of Afghanistan in Central Asia which has the commonality of ethnic, cultural and common interests. Among the countries of Central Asia, Uzbekistan has more independence in its foreign policy rather than other central Asian countries. Uzbekistan, in some cases is uncoordinated and non-predictable because of its Independence for his foreign policies. Two countries, Afghanistan and Uzbekistan, as two neighboring countries have, opportunities of cooperation. This opportunity can be used in various areas such as transit, commercial, economical, combat the threat of terrorism and drug trafficking, which is always considered as a challenge in the relations between the two countries. Opportunities in commercial and economic transit, between the two countries are important more than other opportunities for the two countries. Along these opportunities, bilateral agreements between the two countries in construction and upgrading of ports and railways can be considered as discussion topics between the two countries. Connection of Afghanistan to China, through Uzbekistan, whether along the Silk Road or whether along the other ways, can be an economic development and lead to interests of the two countries. On the other hand Afghanistan can be the field of rail connectivity for “Afghanistan, China, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Iran railways”, which Uzbekistan in it is not included. With this connection Afghanistan will become as highway for transit to countries of Central Asia and especially for Uzbekistan can provide financial benefits. Uzbekistan is a landlocked country and has no connection to the sea but connection to the sea is considered as their long-term program of this country and Afghanistan can be considered one of the most important gates of commercial and economic transit for Uzbekistan. Thus, connection to the sea is just possible through the two major port in Iran and Pakistan and can provide better conditions of commercial, and transit to Uzbekistan. Connection of Uzbekistan to the port of chabahar through Afghanistan could be the mechanisms for cooperation among the four countries, Afghanistan, Iran, India and Uzbekistan, more than any other time. Streams of radical Islamists in the valley of Fergana, Hizb ut-Tahrir and Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan are a common threat to the national interest of Afghanistan and Uzbekistan. Repel of the common threat is common interests of the two countries, therefore It is necessary for two countries, more integrated and repel the threat of terrorism in the common . Drug trafficking, is other challenging issue between the two countries and till now there are no necessary cooperation between the two countries for the disposal of it. Hence, the common fight against drugs and drug traffickers is the discussion between the two states, and needs the cooperation of the two countries for the disposal of it. Finally it should be said that Uzbekistan at the backyard of Russia. Expansion of ties with Uzbekistan brings better opportunities in the relations of Afghanistan and Russia. Recent statements by Special Envoy of Russia in Afghanistan indicate that recovery of Afghanistan's relations with the countries of Central Asia can improve relations with Russia which our country like to have more useful relations with Russia.

Tajikistan, Political opportunities: Tajikistan as an independent country according to its national interests, policy, strategies including issue of Afghanistan, in the main time member of the collective Security Treaty organization, Shanghai treaty, and a strategic partner to countries such as Russia, Iran, and China. Tajikistan wants a peaceful, stable Afghanistan. The two countries are members of the ACO organizations and Islamic cooperation, The United Nations, and CICA organization. Also Afghanistan observer member in Shanghai organization, Tajikistan of the main and permanent member in it. The circles of common political interests between the two countries are wide agreement attests relationships and the deep links the two countries. Opportunities Security Cooperation: Tajikistan and Afghanistan have a 1344 km border; a major part of the area is mountainous. Securing the border and traffic of drugs, are threats to Tajikistan and Central Asian countries. Therefore it is priority to national security of the Republic of Tajikistan to focus to issue, main while national security of Tajikistan and countries of region are tied to stability especially in Afghanistan. There is also the concern of the presence of the Taliban and of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan in northern Afghanistan, and recently ISIS and threats from it to Central Asia, it is effective for Doshanbe’s policies and strategies to zoom the issue of Afghanistan's borders with Tajikistan. Cultural Opportunities has provided unique cooperation between the two countries in the countries. Imam Ali Rahman, President of Tajikistan, outlined to the Parliament of his country the development and deep relations with the countries of Iran and Afghanistan in all areas the most important objectives of foreign policy of his country. Economic opportunities: in the past decade, trade between Afghanistan and Tajikistan increased several times. The potential of Tajikistan in the areas, such as electricity, tourism, agriculture, animal husbandry, education, and art and culture is very attractive and Afghanistan can have useful cooperation in all of these areas with Tajikistan. The two countries have a lot of dependencies in terms of economic with each other. Tajikistan exports some of the produced electricity to Afghanistan, and Afghanistan raised as main buyer of electricity from Tajikistan. With the construction of power transmission line from Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan to Afghanistan and Pakistan which is called (CASA-1000) the amount of exportation of electricity will increases. Also the construction projects of the railway route Tajikistan - Afghanistan - Pakistan up to the Gwadar port and power transmission project can lead to the development of trade and strengthen the economic between Afghanistan - Tajikistan and Pakistan. The two countries can be quantitative colleagues to each other on construction of several bridges on the rivers of "Amu Darya" and "Panj", in the agenda of their regional project, and work hard on transmission of electricity "Casa 1000"., the railway Tajikistan - Afghanistan - Turkmenistan, as well China - Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan - Afghanistan - Iran gas pipeline Tajikistan - Afghanistan. In this regard, more than seventy cooperation agreements between Afghanistan and Tajikistan has been signed.

Turkmenistan a country with wide deserts and many herds has a 744 km common border with Afghanistan in north and northwest. The largest wells of natural resources, especially oil and natural gas laid in the heart its deserts, Turkmenistan, with more than five million people population is the less populated country among the countries of Central Asia. Afghanistan was one of the First Nations that recognized the independence of Turkmenistan. In the field of political cooperation: The foreign policy of Turkmenistan was positive neutrality after its independence. Therefore, Turkmenistan in comparing with the other neighboring countries has the lowest role in the conflict, and domestic affairs of Afghanistan. This country in different periods of time had cautious and good relationships with the Government of Afghanistan. In field of economics Afghanistan and Turkmenistan after its independence always followed economics base policies with neighbors especially through Afghanistan they planned to reach south Asia. An agreement was signed for the construction of gas pipeline establishments, called TAPI in 2010 by the Presidents of Afghanistan, Turkmenistan, Pakistan and India which is One of the most major economic initiatives for Afghanistan and the region and can create about 12 thousand jobs. Torghondi in Herat and Aqina in faryab Province are the most important borders for crossings of Commercial good between the two countries. Meanwhile, the border Aqina is supposed to have railways that can directly links Afghanistan to the Caspian Sea, Turkmenistan is an important route for the transit of goods to Afghanistan, and not to forget that Afghanistan is serious customer to the fuel of Turkmenistan. Cultural relations, In recent years, agreements have been signed for the expansion of cultural relations and scientific between the governments of Afghanistan and Turkmenistan. Although Turkmenistan somehow roles of the cultural center of the Turkmen the world, but could not extend cultural relations with Afghanistan, especially the Turkmen residents of this country. The border of the two countries and the security challenges, Turkmenistan is expected to be one of the ways of drug trafficking to Russia and Europe. Hence, concerns of Turkmenistan are more about drug trafficking through common borders with Afghanistan. Turkmenistan is not encountered with the challenge of religious extremism, like other countries of Central Asia. In this case growing influence of Islamist rebels are less able to make a headache to the state of Turkmenistan.

Kyrgyzstan, which is located in north of Afghanistan and diplomatic relations between the two countries started from the year 1999. Throughout the history of both countries had friendly relations and have cooperation with each other. In politics Kyrgyzstan is represented and shown symbols of the fraternity and their support from Afghanistan and expressed to have a role in the recent developments. Because of having no common borders between two countries the challenges of security and other threats are very low. In main while the President of Kyrgyzstan said that his country supports Afghanistan to be accepted as a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and we want to expand relations with Afghanistan. Mainly Afghanistan and Kyrgyzstan have opportunities on economics which is full of advantages and benefits for both sides, in here I will focus on these opportunities: Afghanistan trades with Kyrgyzstan, parts of machinery, equipment, and cloths and in return exports dried and fresh fruit, carpets, and cereal to Kyrgyzstan. Based on the statistics of the Embassy of Kyrgyzstan in 2010 the amount of trade between the two countries grown up from 50 to 60 million dollars. Establishment of a railway between the two countries and Mining and activation of an agricultural consortium between Afghanistan - Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, power transmission project Casa1000 is one of the other important projects of region that transfers 1300 megawatts of electricity from the territory of Tajikistan and Afghanistan to Pakistan.

Kazakhstanand Afghanistan established Diplomatic relations in 1992, and in 2003 the political representation of Kazakhstan in the Kabul upgraded to the Embassy and during these period political relations expanded between the two countries. In political challenges, Kazakhstan also doesn’t have common border with Afghanistan as central Asian country and is not facing direct threats from Afghanistan but during the past years Kazakhstan became one of the players in Afghanistan’s issues, and one of the main Allies of Afghanistan in the fighting against terrorism. Kazakhstan supported strongly and decisively to the process of fighting terrorism and help the world to development and reconstruction of Afghanistan, the Government of Afghanistan also see this country a strong ally in the area. This country with strategies for the long term of itself and region wants to expand and have cooperation and good relations with Afghanistan.

In case economics two countries can have many sector to share and get advantages such as: Mines in Afghanistan may be an opportunity for Kazakh investors and government of Afghanistan must pave the ground for companies and investors and make sure of the security issues. The amount of trade exchanges of Afghanistan and Kazakhstan in 2011is more than two million dollars, it seems, and in 2012 increased close to three million dollars. In cultural area In 2010 Kazakhstan assisted a package fifty million dollars in the form of scholarships for students of Afghanistan. Now 850 Afghan students are in Kazakhstan and involved in education.

Conclusion:Uzbekistan is facing internal security challenges which are supported from outside the borders. Tajikistan is facing challenges of drug smuggling and militancy due to close border with Afghanistan. Similarly Turkmenistan is also facing same security threats but government of Turkmenistan remained neutral in all disputes. However, non-bordering countries Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan are facing challenges of terrorism, extremism and militancy. Main while Afghanistan is one best corridor for all central Asia due to develop their connections to south Asia, India and at end to Europe.

Suggestions:Therefore emphasizing the necessity for creating an effective regional mechanism in view of the common problems that the Central Asian states are facing today through Afghanistan and in return regional and international society and organizations must make a strong relation between Afghanistan and central Asia. To promote regional cooperation and integration in such way that it become a tool for better economic and trade relation and promote stability and economic development.

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