Delphi questionnaire results

National Research University

Higher School of Economics

Daria Kuzmina, Altynai Raiymkulova, Tackmoon Kwon,
Nawaid Alam, Anna Gorkova​

Application of STI Policy Tools in Public Transport Sector

Essay on the course of STI Policy

Supervisor Alexander Chulok

Submission date 01/04/2016

Table of Contents

Introduction. 3

1. Literature review.. 4

1.1. Technology Platforms. 4

1.2. National initiatives. 5

1.3. State programs. 8

1.4. Corporate programs. 10

1.5. Industrial associations. 12

2. Hypothesis. 14

2.1. State Programs. 15

2.2. National initiatives. 17

2.3. Industrial Associations. 18

2.4. Corporate Strategy. 19

2.5. Technology platforms. 19

Conclusion. 22

References. 23

Introduction

Modern society is characterized by intense communication processes and movements. Public transport plays an important role in people's lives and the economy of a country. Passenger traffic is constantly developing between the individual settlements. Strengthening of transport and economic links between neighboring settlements resulted to appearing some regions and states. Between regions and countries transport links also have been developing. Cities are growing, and public transport plays an important role there as well. Public transport is a key element in the social life of modern Russian cities. For the modern Russia, transport has a huge significance, because it brings together different transport regions of the country into one state. In this respect, transport is one of the leading state constituent factors.

We considered different STI policy tools in our essay to answer the research question: “Are STI policy tools in Russia effective or not?” For this purpose, in the first part we briefly describe the key characteristics of the STI policy instruments and make preliminary conclusions. In the second part the mix of indicators is proposed to evaluate the STI Policy instruments and after implied.

Our team examined and estimated the follow STI policy tools:

¾ Technology platforms;

¾ National initiatives;

¾ State programs;

¾ Corporate programs;

¾ Industrial associations.

A variety of reports and specialized sites has been used in the preparation of the essay. The material was selected by using Scopus and the Internet (Yandex and Google searching engines).

Literature review

Technology Platforms

The key objective of technology platforms are strategically important issues with high societal relevance. Usually technology platforms are used to have some major research and technological advances in the medium to long-term. Thus, a technology platform is a STI policy tool for “collaborating stakeholders around a common vision and approach for the development of the technologies concerned, with specific focus on the definition of a Strategic Research Agendaand the mobilization of the necessary critical mass of research and innovation effort” (Europäische Kommission, 2004).

The emergence of technology platforms highlights an important development in addressing some of the major economic, technological societal challenges. Russian Foundation for Technological Development (RFTD) and Ministry of Economic of the Russian Federation encourage this process and closely coordinate their activities in this area, and monitor developments. Research and technological development has a primary objective to drive in boosting competitiveness, economic growth and employment.

Technology platforms in Russia are shown as a relatively new institutional form of cooperation among different actors in the framework of the STI policy of the Federal level. A number of interconnected members by general objectives, technological areas and business perspectives are comprised to technology platforms. The main perception is mainly to stimulate high tech sectors development and new businesses.

By October in 2013 there were 34 technology platforms including bioenergy, photonics, medicine of the future and so on in Russia approved by Russian Federation Government Commission on high technology and innovation. There are 2 relevant technology platforms on transport technology, coordinating organizations of the technology platforms from both open joint-stock company of “Rusnano”, and Russian Railways”, which are named as application of innovative technologies to improve construction efficiency, maintenance and safety of roads and railways and as high-speed intellectual railway transport.

Therefore, such these questions arise, for instance, how technology platform is applied or how it operates. We see the structure in technology platform there would be comprised of higher educational institutions, scientific and research organizations, public authorities, foreign organizations, manufacturing enterprises and so on. To make it easier to understand, technology platform is a tool for encompassing together with most significant and various stakeholders such as government, business, science and education to ensure innovative challenges, developing strategic researches and identify ways to implement it.

There are different specific characteristics on Russian technology platform and EU’s.

First, Principle of formation in EU is bottom-up, but top-down in Russia. Second, main goals are development among major stakeholders, connection between fundamental research and practical applications while Russia sets following goals; creation of new technologies, attraction of additional resources for R&D and improvement of legal regulations in R&D and innovation. Third, Mission is development of strategic plan and road maps in EU and development of strategic programs and educational activities and disseminating new technologies. Finally, government role is mainly promotion of platforms concept, but participation in governance of platforms, attraction of platforms as experts and monitoring of platform’s activities in Russia (Proskuryakova el al., 2015).

STI policy supporting technology platforms has involvement of stakeholders, financial source and human resources. In the view of technology platforms on STI policy, a number of instruments are interrelated with foresight, university innovation programs and public companies.

National initiatives

According to transport Strategy of the Russian Federation until 2030 (“Транспортная стратегия РФ на период до 2030 года - Документы - Федеральное дорожное агентство (Transport Strategy of Russia until 2030),” n.d.), strategic goals for the state policy in the transport sector:

¾ creating the integrated transport space in the Russian Federation;

¾ ensuring access to quality transport-logistic services;

¾ ensuring access to quality transport services for the population;

¾ integration into the international transport system, increasing the transport services exports and transit;

¾ increasing the level of transport safety;

¾ reducing the negative environmental impact of transport.

Local transport constraints mean that it is increasingly difficult to attract new investment and workers to the faster growing cities. Traffic congestion, long commuting times and related air pollution are becoming key challenges in almost bigger cities, but the situation is particularly bad in Moscow. The current policy priority is to improve the quality and accessibility of the public urban transport (OECD, 2014).

Intermodal transport systems will be the key for a positive development of an effective transport landscape serving from door-to-door to its final customers. In the conditions of growth of traffics, our Government approved strategy of transport development (“СТРАТЕГИИ РАЗВИТИЯ ТРАНСПОРТНОГО КОМПЛЕКСА (Development Strategy of Transportation),” n.d.) which will help to make public transport more comfortable, it emphasizes the importance of intermodal interaction in the development of the Russian transport infrastructure.

Figure 1:

Notes: Average traffic speed in peak hours in selected cities

Source: (OECD, 2014)

Here there are some ideas that have already been implemented in Moscow to improve the current situation:

Clever bus stops.

According to the Government program “Safe city” (“Об утверждении Государственной программы города Москвы ‘Безопасный город’ на 2012-2016 годы (с изменениями на 13 мая 2015 года) (Moscow State Program ‘Safe city’),” 2015) each of the bus stops will be equipped with video cameras of external observation and screens , that provide current information about the movement of public transport and the time, you will spend waiting your bus.

On the side of the interactive screen will be located buttons for police, ambulance, fire, emergency, and to communicate with the dispatcher, who can answer all the passenger’s questions in "online" mode. "Mosgortrans" informs (“Новости (News),” 2016) that according to the date of 2014, there are 539 information boards display the predicted time of arrival of buses, trolley buses and trams.

Unified ticket.

A new tariff system for travel on public transport in Moscow was introduced in 2013 (“Тарифы и билеты (Fares and Tickets),” 2016), which includes travel tickets for the network of bus, tram, trolleybus, underground and monorail systems. Unified ticket – a ticket valid for the Metro and all types of surface transport. And 90 Minute ticket – a ticket good for one ride on the Metro plus unlimited surface transport within a 90-minute period, this ticket is cheaper by a third than to buy 1 ticket for metro and 1 ticket for surface type of transport. It can save money for people who have no metro station near to their house and you use surface types of transport to get the metro everyday.
Moscow Railway Ring

MKZD – it is a long orbital railway. The ring line will be 54 km long upon completion, will have 31 stations (“Московская кольцевая железная дорога (МКЖД) (Moscow Railway Ring Road),” 2016). According to the approved feasibility study Moscow Railway Ring is created to accomplish the integrated approach to the reconstruction and development of the Small Ring of the Moscow Railway as well as the organization of multifunctional transport hubs at the stations along the Ring and to provide rolling stock for urban passenger transportation It will definitely help to alleviate the mad traffic of Moscow metro. For example, today to get from Leninsky prospect to Mezdunarodnaya is 28 minutes, with MKZD it will take only 10 minutes, it is two and a half times faster! This ring will unite metro and trains in one transport system and reduce the time on transfer. By the general plan from 2016 MKZD will transport 285 mln people every year.

Aeroexpress.

Aeroexpress (“Аэроэкспресс (Aeroexpress),” 2016) is one more intermodal rail transport services that has already implemented. Aeroexpress provides rail services between the capital and all of the major Moscow airports (Vnukovo, Domodedovo and Sheremetyevo), as well as the town of Lobnya. In 2013, a total of 20,189,200 passengers travelled on Aeroexpress trains, 16,832,000 of them went to and from Moscow airports. This result is 13.2% higher than in 2012. In 2013, the company’s share on the intermodal transportation market amounted to 23.83%. In 2013, Aeroexpress passenger traffic on the Lobnya route reached 2,594,000 people, which is 19.6% higher compared to 2012.

Carsharing.

A government-backed carsharing service launched in Moscow last year ease the capital's infamous traffic jams (“Делимобиль (Delimobil),” 2016). Carsharing is a type of short-term car rental service that bills users per minute. Users can register for the service on Delimobil's website and sign a carsharing agreement — a necessary requirement — at the company's central office near Paveletskaya metro station or at Financial Standard Bank branches around Moscow. The scheme, which is being actively developed in cities across the world, allows users to book a car at a nearby location, drive it for as long as they like, and leave it where they please. To help carsharing users find the official Moscow vehicles, Delimobil has a mobile app to help locate the nearest available car.

Project of intermodal transport development will help to make public transport more attractive for passengers. It is a high-risky project, because disruption of services and the discontinuation of individual lines may jeopardize the overall network and the quality of intermodal transport services in general. But I see the implementations of this project in live and I believe in a great future of intermodal transport.

State programs

According to “Portal of Russian Federation’s State programs” (“ЧТО ТАКОЕ ГОСПРОГРАММА (What is a State Program),” 2016), State program is a document of strategic planning containing a set of planned activities interconnected by goals, deadlines , executives and resources and public policy instruments to achieve the public policy objectives of socio-economic development and national security of the Russian Federation. State programs in the field of public transport in Russia include “ Development of aviation in 2013-2025”, “ Transport system development until 2020” and “ Implementation of NGV vehicles with division to sub programs by type of transportation (avia, railway etc.)” (“ГОСУДАРСТВЕННЫЕ ПРОГРАММЫ (State Programs),” 2016) .

Aviation development program is aimed to retain third position of Russia as world aviation technics producer. The State-provided funding structure of the Program (Figure1) clearly illustrates creation of scientific and technological potential (37% of the budget) and new advanced aviation solutions as the most important objectives. Meanwhile private sector is interested mostly in high profitable sectors (Figure 2) and dedicates to R&D only 2% of its Program budget. Total budget of the program is 991,6 bln rubles where 72% provided by State and it was approved in 2010.

Figure 2:

Notes: Structure of State funding for aviation development program

Source: based on materials of open government documents.

Figure 3:

Notes: Structure of Private funding for aviation development program

Source: based on materials of open government documents.

Transport system development program for 2010-2020 period has more tactic character to satisfy a growing need of population in mobility, so the objective is to increase the mobility in 1,5 times and to eliminate “transportation discrimination” regarding Kaliningrad and Far Far East regions. 7,7 trillion rubles are used to build and to upkeep auto roads, railways, ports and airports; to modernize the existing vehicles in all transportation modes. Innovative component of the program is responsible for reduction of transportation costs through the introduction of modern energy-efficient transportation technologies.

Obviously, the main objective of the program "Implementation of NGV vehicles with division to sub programs by type of transportation " is a replacement of transportation vehicles on traditional fuels by those of on NGV to decrease transportation costs and to negative environmental impact. Besides introduction of NGV transportation technics Program includes also an elaboration of incentive system to use natural gas as NGV fuel and creation of modern legal framework of NGV fuel use at all transportation modes. During six years of implementation period 2015-2020 State is planned to spend 109 bln of rubles. Target of R&D activities are new transportation vehicles and technics on NGV.

Corporate programs

The strategy of an organization created by its initiative that mirrors its central goal and center qualities in its objectives and basic business strategies for accomplishing them. The strategy of corporate level gives clear orientation for all the divisions working to fulfill goal of shareholder while giving worth to their employees and clients. Three fundamental approaches for making strategy are:

¾ At what level organization stands today?

¾ Where an organization want it to be?

¾ What is the approach to achieve the goal?

Science, innovation, and innovation policy structures corporate association with the objective of guiding its exercises to serve is customer demands. There are several transportation corporate organization in Russia such as Aeroflot, S7, Russian Railways (RZD), Mosgortrans, Moscow Metropolitan and Aero express etc. and all of them have their strategies in STI level to fulfill their stakeholder’s needs. Right now the structure shape for science, technology and innovation and (STI) strategy have changed essentially in Russia such as an arrangement of forecasting technology has been built up which primarily concentrates on guaranteeing the future demands (Sokolov et al., 2013).

STI strategies of Russian state owned enterprises illustrate one of the present strategies instruments of the Russian government which targeted the innovative exercises of significant corporation. The STI strategies activity was propelled in August 2010 (Gershman, 2012). The STI strategies were produced as per the official proposals of the government. The majority of them incorporated the accompanying the following way: equipment modernization, development of new products, increasing cooperation with Research and Development institutions, research universities and small-medium enterprises (SMEs), technologies commercialization, investment in Russian innovation platforms and cooperation in international level. To spotlight into particular experience of R&D collaboration of with international organization in the corporate area, Russian Railways (RZD) and Aeroflot Airlines to give evidence that a portion of the Russian stated owned organizations (SOEs) are emphatically engaged in international level STI cooperation. In addition, this kind of innovation policy of Russian state-owned organization, especially transport sectors, are cooperation with several countries organization such as Germany, United states, CIS nations, South Korea, France and China. Following are the some examples of the STI Policy of Russian transports sector SOEs with some well-known international cooperation (Gershman, 2012):

Aeroflot (“News,” 2016a):

¾ STI cooperation, Boeing and Airbus with agreement level for purchase of the aircraft, instrument and components of the aircraft on regular support.

¾ Lufthansa Technik, five-year agreement level for maintenance and technically assist of aircraft of Aeroflot.

¾ RP Aero systems and CAE, agreement level for acquire flight simulators for Aviation school of Aeroflot.

¾ SAP and Lufthansa, long term agreement for execution of ERP frameworks and expansion of finance.

Russian Railways (“News,” 2016b):

¾ Alstom (France), Joint venture level for the manufacturing of electric trains for passenger.

¾ Siemens – Germany, joint venture level combined production of electric freight and electric trains with alliance in engineering.

¾ Finmeccanica – Italy, memorandum of roadmap and understanding level for modernization of control systems of automatic trains.

¾ Tatravgonka – Slovakia, joint venture level for manufacture of new type multifunction trucks and manufacture of flat wagons for purpose of carrying.

¾ Knorr-Bremse – Germany, joint venture level for maintenance and production of brake component for locomotives and other kind of rail transport.

¾ Bombardier – Canada, Joint venture level for manufacture of railroad telemechanics and automation system.

¾ MTU – Germany, Joint venture level for manufacture of new generation diesel engine.

Industrial associations

Industrial associations are special organizations (usually, non-profit) which support its members by some techniques and commercial data. Industrial associations serve as means for information generation and sharing, but also provide, during periods of crisis, the framework for a coordination of collective goals aimed at the development of long-term opportunities (Wolff, 1986). Moreover, industrial associations provide a basis for risk reduction through risk sharing, which the development of long-term options requires (new technologies, new long-term projects. For example, rival companies can form collective long-term R&D objectives

Industrial associations are a great way to make a connection between the government and private sectors (sometimes, government and state companies). For example, in an environment of imperfect government institutions and legislation, interaction between industrial and business associations and the government may have a role of a feedback mechanism, where the associations are the source of information about property rights violations and business barriers. Moreover, the industrial associations are able to help with the coordination in the development and maintenance of sector standards (Yakovlev & Govorun, 2011). In addition, authors of the article differentiated among the following three categories of associations:

¾ top nationwide associations, drawing their membership from across sectors and regions;

¾ sector-specific associations, drawing their nationwide membership from one sector or many regions;

¾ region-specific associations, drawing their membership from one region and usually only one sector.

One of the roles of industrial associations is promoting of R&D and innovations in one industrial sector. Their activities are usually financed by contributions or subscriptions from the businesses concerned which provide “institutional” support for their R&D. (OECD, 1998).

According to this ranging, we can differentiate associations of public transportation sector, where Russia and Russian companies are active participants, as:

- top nationwide ones: International Association of Public Transport (UITP) (“UITP,” n.d.);

- sector-specific ones: International Metro Association (“International Metro Association,” 2016), International Union of Railways (UIC) (“UIC, THE WORLDWIDE HIGH PROFILE ORGANISATION,” 2016), International Association of Urban Electric Transport Enterprises (MAP GET) (“МАП ГЭТ (International Association of Urban Electric Transport Enterprises),” n.d.), International Road Transport Union (“IRU - Homepage,” n.d.);

- region-specific ones: Russian Road Transport Union (“Российский автотранспортный союз (РАС) (Russian Road Transport Union),” 2016), Passengers Carriers Association (“Ассоциация перевозчиков пассажиров (Passengers Carriers Association),” 2016), Russian Transport Union (“СОЮЗ ТРАНСПОРТНИКОВ РОССИИ (Russian Transport Union),” 2016).

Hypothesis

Based on OECD’s working paper on methodology of industrial policy evaluation and our assumptions we suggest the set of following criteria: budget of R&D support policies, innovative outcome in terms of new products and services, intensity of PPP (public-private partnership), cluster and region development. Table 1 shows different forms of proposed indicators depending on type of STI policy instrument.

Table 1:

STI Policy instrument	Budget for R&D	Innovative outcome	PPP	Region development
State Programs	Share of R&D budget in total one, tax incentives& subsidies	Products and services State aims to develop	Share of PPP projects if available, areas of partnership	Geographical orientation of Programs.
National initiatives	Share of R&D budget	Products and services State aims to develop	Share of PPP projects if available, areas of partnership	Geographical orientation of Programs
Technology platforms	Share of R&D budget	Realization Indicator (efficiency) of the project	Share of PPP projects, how many privates Companies participate	Geographical orientation of Technology platforms
Industrial associations	Share of R&D budget in total one	Products and Services Associations aim to develop	Share of PPP projects, areas Of partnership

Cont. Table 1
STI Policy instrument	Budget for R&D	Innovative outcome	PPP	Region development
Corporate programs	Share of R&D budget in total one	Products and Services Cooperation aim to Develop	Share of PPP projects if available, areas of partnership	Geographical orientation of Programs.

Notes: Evaluation indicators for STI Policy instruments

Source: based on materials of (Warwick & Nolan, 2014) and this course work

State Programs

Budget for R&D. In the framework of Transport system development program (“СТРАТЕГИИ РАЗВИТИЯ ТРАНСПОРТНОГО КОМПЛЕКСА (Development Strategy of Transportation),” n.d.) State dedicates 16, 7 bln rubles or 0,16 % of budget to R&D activities, mostly in aviation sector. Taking into account that maintenance of existing transport system and its extension are the final objectives of the Program the negligible share of R&D is a logical decision. As it was mentioned higher aviation research activities have important place in State priorities if take a look on the structure of budget of Aviation development program (37% of State-funding part of the Program).

Innovation outcome. The key new products of aviation development program are presented in the Figure 4. Among them there are well-known and highly expected SSJ-100 and MC-21 as well as totally recent projects only with desirable characteristics as ultrafast helicopter and electric helicopter.

Figure 4:

Notes: Key innovative products of aviation development program

Source: based on Ministry of transportation presentation of the program

Implementation of NGV vehicles program would like to expand line of vehicles on NGV and to modify gas refill infrastructure for all transport modes. There is no open detailed information about Program’s tangible R&D products, but plenty of planned results of incentives to use NGV transport technologies.

Provided that Transport system development program is not concerned by R&D activities, there are no developed products and services in its plan.

Private-public partnership. Subprogram "Highways development program" is realized on PPP (private-public partnership) basis as well as activities of another sub program of Transport system development program related to intensifying the air traffic with Far East, Kaliningrad regions to European part of the country. Aviation development program could be accomplished only with a participation of private R&D institutions, air construction companies etc. There are no any PPP projects in the cadre of Implementation of NGV vehicles Program.

Region development. Implementation of NGV vehicles program activities are concentrated in a number of selected regions (Figure 5) Bashkortostan, Ingushetia republic, Crimea , Tatarstan , Udmurt Republics; Krasnodar, Voronezh, Kaliningrad, Leningrad, Moscow, Nizhegorod, Orenburg, Rostov, Samara, Sverdlovsk,Stavropol, Chelyabinsk regions; Moscow, Saint-Petersbourg, Hanty-Mansyysk autonomous region. As we see on the map no one region in Siberia or Far East is under the Program, we see the clear allocation of activities in most populated regions in central and south Russia. Regarding to the objective to introduce NGV vehicles on marine transport exemption of Kursk, Murmansk, Vladivostok regions gives a room for discussion.

Figure 5:

Notes: Regions covered by the Program “Implementation of NGV vehicles” are colored in red

Source: (“СТРАТЕГИИ РАЗВИТИЯ ТРАНСПОРТНОГО КОМПЛЕКСА (Development Strategy of Transportation),” n.d.)

National initiatives

Recent years have been marked by growing attention of Russian Government to the development of transport infrastructure.

Figure 6:

Notes: Spending on Transport infrastracture 1995-2011

Source: (ITF Transport Outlook 2013, 2013)

Innovation outcome. Nowadays it is obvious that Russian transport system need to be improved. Some ideas have already implemented: clever bus stops, car sharing, MKZD, aero express etc.

Budget for R&D. About 60% of financing of transport development- public investments. The remaining 40% provided from extra budgetary resources. Capital investments expected to be around 136 trillion rubles by 2030 years: 28% - federal budget, about 15% - the budgets of the RF subjects and 57% - extra-budget funds. (Transport strategy until 2030, approved by Russian government 22.11.2008)

One of the most import issues for Russia – development of investment tools. In the long term, as stated in the Transport Strategy, this ratio will change. Share extra-budgetary resources will increase and, accordingly, the share of the budget decrease.

According to the survey of Venture Barometer Russia 2015 by Prostor Capital venture fund and Data insight agency more when 50 % of surveyed investors expect growth of venture investments by 2021.

Private-public partnership. Currently, the Russian transport sector has successfully implemented a number of projects on the basis of PPP. Among them are the following: Orlovsky Tunnel in St Petersburg, Reconstruction of Pulkovo Airport in St. Petersburg, construction of highway Moscow - St. Petersburg (section 15- 58 km), company "Avtodor"( created for the development of a network of high-speed toll highway). The Company " Avtodor" considers the PPP as the main mechanism for financing its projects and aims to provide funding from extra budgetary sources at least 40% of capital investment. the company's development program until 2019 envisages the involvement of 320 billion rubles. on the basis of PPP in the form of concessions, the life cycle of contracts, on the operational management of contracts.

Region development. Regional uneven development of transport infrastructure limits the development of a single economic space of the country and allows you to fully explore the resources regions. Nowadays almost all projects that already implemented – implemented in Moscow.

Industrial Associations

According to Advancing Public Transport Organization (UITP), the role of transport associations is basically advocacy & outreach, knowledge and network & business as doing R&D activities with. Therefore, key measurement would be the performance of R&D activities or results of R&D activities which can apply for actual infrastructure. secondary their role is sharing and exchanging ideas and best practice in a professional way.

And next key measurement is connectivity with shareholders that how many firms, institutes or public private partnerships affecting transport development associate the Russian transport sector and share of PPP projects and areas of partnership is the measurement. The number of certain projects and which are ongoing now or have done related to transportation development in Russia is other measurement. For instance, if there is issues to develop or solve certain problems. How many firms, institutes, university, PPP and any department of government are participating certain projects or program. Russian transportation union (“СОЮЗ ТРАНСПОРТНИКОВ РОССИИ (Russian Transport Union),” 2016) has 47 members of firms.

The transportation association to the Russian transportation development can be measured also by the amount of funds how much investment are attracted.

Corporate Strategy

Table 2:

Corporate Program	R&D Budget	Innovative Outcome	PPP	Regional Development
Aeroflot	Aeroflot airline invested about 0.3% on R&D of its total revenue in 2014.	The main outcome of 2014 was that Aeroflot held its undeniable position as driving bearer in Russia and stayed on course to convey dynamic development in a to a great challenging environment	Aeroflot and the Moscow State Technical University of Civil Aviation signed R&D Agreement	Strategy 2025, extend the impression of an organization in the regional markets development (Aurora, Donavia, and Rossiya aircrafts).

Notes: Corporate program realization

Source: Aeroflot Annual Report, 2014

Technology platforms

We considered and evaluated the STI policy performance indicators in two existing transport technology platforms:

1. High-speed smart railway transport (“ВЫСОКОСКОРОСТНОЙ ИНТЕЛЛЕКТУАЛЬНЫЙ ЖЕЛЕЗНОДОРОЖНЫЙ ТРАНСПОРТ (High-speed Smart Railway Transport),” 2016);

2. Application of innovative technologies to improve the efficiency of construction, maintenance and safe roads and railways (“ПРИМЕНЕНИЕ ИННОВАЦИОННЫХ ТЕХНОЛОГИЙ ДЛЯ ПОВЫШЕНИЯ ЭФФЕКТИВНОСТИ СТРОИТЕЛЬСТВА, СОДЕРЖАНИЯ И БЕЗОПАСНОСТИ АВТОМОБИЛЬНЫХ И ЖЕЛЕЗНЫХ ДОРОГ (Application of innovative technologies to improve the efficiency of construction, maintenance and safe roads and railways),” 2016).

Budget for R&D. Total funding of oriented basic research on topics approved by JSC "Russian Railways" and relevant stakeholders to the high-speed technology platform in 2012 amounted to about 50 mln. RUB. Using own funds, JSC "Russian Railways" according to the Plan of Scientific and Technological Development in 2012 in support of a technological platform made a study on 27 subjects and spent totally about 130 mln. RUB. (“Отчет о реализации технологической платформы ‘Высокоскоростной интеллектуальный железнодорожный транспорт’ в 2012 году (Report of the realization of the technology platform ‘High-speed Smart Railway Transport’),” 2012)

Innovation outcome. Innovation outcomes in the high-speed technology platform are implementation of the following projects: creation of a high-speed rail system with the speed up to 400 km/h and the design of a high-speed rail road with speeds up to 1000 km/h (magnetic levitation trains). RZD has successfully implemented a project to develop high-speed communications between St Petersburg - Moscow - Nizhny Novgorod, using trains "Sapsan" made by the German company Siemens and introduced a high-speed local communication (trains "Lastochki"). Information about the success of a magnetic levitation train is not detected.

Innovative federal pilot project "Innovative Road" was developed in the framework of a technological platform (“Отчет по деятельности технологической платформы за 2012 год (Report about an activity of the technology platform in 2012),” 2013). In 2012, road lighting poles from the nano composite material were installed for the first time in Russia. One of the participants for the first time established a LED lighting system. At the railway station of Anapa solar electric power generation system was installed. Locking-sealing devices was implemented with RFID-tags.

Private-public partnership. As the mechanism of public-private partnership it was planned to use the mechanism of the federal target program "Research and development on priority directions of scientific-technological complex of Russia for 2007-2013" through the formation of research subjects for the benefit of the technological platform and to attract at least 50% of the funds for research from extra budgetary sources. In the framework of the approved strategic directions of research in the high-speed technology platform in 2012 there were organized an implementation of targeted basic research under contracts with the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (RFBR), with 50% co-financing from the technological platform coordinator – JSC "Russian Railways" (“Отчет о реализации технологической платформы ‘Высокоскоростной интеллектуальный железнодорожный транспорт’ в 2012 году (Report of the realization of the technology platform ‘High-speed Smart Railway Transport’),” 2012).

Region development. JSC “Russian Railways” carries out a techno-economic assessment of the organization of high-speed passenger traffic between Ekaterinburg-Tyumen and Yekaterinburg-Chelyabinsk (“Отчет о реализации технологической платформы ‘Высокоскоростной интеллектуальный железнодорожный транспорт’ в 2012 году (Report of the realization of the technology platform ‘High-speed Smart Railway Transport’),” 2012).

The participants of the technological platform in efficiency of construction, maintenance and safe roads and railways jointly with the Moscow division of the British engineering company AECOM and the Federal Road Agency prepared technical task for the development of project documentation design for the three objects of the pilot project "Innovative Road": Moscow, Tatarstan and Ryazan regions. Fund of infrastructure and educational programs in conjunction with members of the technology platform developed and implemented regional and sectoral programs to stimulate demand for innovative and nanotechnology products in Novosibirsk, Belgorod, Ulyanovsk, Ryazan, Tomsk and Kaluga regions, in St. Petersburg, Moscow, and also in the Chuvash Republic and republic of Tatarstan (“Отчет по деятельности технологической платформы за 2012 год (Report about an activity of the technology platform in 2012),” 2013).

Conclusion

Nowadays increasing of international and national mobility of people, capital and goods affects directly on transport system development. Russia’s immense territories demand a special effort to link all country by all year round available and affordable transport solutions. Figure 7 shows the diversity and the spread of Russian transport network, one of the largest in the world.

Figure 7:

Note: Transport network in Russia in thousands of kilometers

Source: Ministry of transport of Russian Federation

STI Policy tools analysis permits to define main key prospective areas from the point of view of stakeholders, their priorities and to foresight Russian transport system development. Chosen instruments - technology platforms, national initiatives, state programs, industrial associations, and corporate programs were presented on the example of Russian public transport sector. We see that the State is the main player here due to particularity of the sector and of the national economy dominating in all given tools. State promotion of Crimea transport development through State programs and initiatives, partnership with industrial associations and incentives for private, State-owned and mixed transport enterprises is only one example of State control of transport sector.

Evaluation of STI policy tools in our work consists of 4 indicators: share of R&D budget and public-private partnership analysis as innovation inputs, products and services obtained in the result of STI activities of instruments as innovation outcome, and region dispersion of STI activities as innovation impact.

Aviation is the most supported transport branch by all STI policy instruments in Russia according to our results. Provided the commercial success of aviation production both in national and international markets, growing high technological competition in this sphere undertaken complex measures seems to be adequate. In addition, according to technology platforms in transport sector, Russian government pays also much attention to the development of high-speed railroads.

Proposed indicators of STI policy instruments evaluation should be further developed and completed depending on stakeholders and country characters.

Delphi questionnaire results

Our Hypothesis to check:

We prepared a questionary for our groupmates, comprising four parts: global trends, markets, technologies and policy measures questions.

We had 23 respondents, 17 non-experts and 6 experts. This rate didn't change throughout the voting.

Figure 1:

On the figure 2 you can see the current status of respondents

Figure 2:

Global trends

Seven trends are defined:

1. Increase of public transport users. Earth’s population is expected to increase to roughly 9.5 billion by 2050, and more than 6.5 billion of these people will be living in urban areas, as opposed to 3.5 billion today. Many people in this group (and others) are switching to public transport. The International Association of Public Transport predicts that the share of personal mobility accounted for by public transport worldwide will double by 2025 as compared to 2009.

2. Increase of smart transport apps. These include app-based mobility offers, such as bikesharing, e-hailing and carsharing, which is being rolled out across the world.

3. Increase of connectivity: big data.

4. Remove of trade barriers.

5. Attractive customer-oriented companies.

6. Green technologies. Transport already accounts for 22 percent of global CO2 emissions; that makes it the second-biggest source. The International Energy Agency believes that CO2 emissions might increase by nearly 50 percent to 14.9 metric gigatons by 2050.The development of low-emission engines and highly efficient and networked transport solutions is therefore critical for ensuring a sustainable future.

7. Alternatives of public transport.

Some important trends not reviewed in the essay are:

1. Electrification of the driveline. In the best-case scenario (MC Kinsey)every second new vehicle should have a (partly) electric motor in 2030. Big cities and metropolises will play a key role in dissemination the electric mobility.

2. Automated driving. In the best-case scenario 15% of all new vehicles could drive automated by 2030 (MC Kinsey).

Markets

We selected 5 ares:

Car sharing

A suburban trains

Tickets prices

Special apps

Parking space

Car sharing is a new service for Russia, but it is rapidly paining popularity. According to research company Frost & Sullivan, by 2020 the number of available vehicles will grow to 240 thousand or 26.2 million users comparing to 6 million users in 2015. The integration of electric vehicles could make carsharing one of the most important sustainable mobility solutions in the future.After the first round our respondents decided that the development of car sharing system in Russia will growth after 2021.

Regional transport development is one of the most important issues for Russia.First of all, we must increase the safety of the entire transport system and safeguard people’s lives and the health. Second, we must increase the availability of transport services throughout the country, including remote locations in Siberia and the Far East. Third, we should improve transport efficiency and cut costs which are nothing short of outlandish for certain types of transport. Fourth, we must take advantage of our geographic location that is favourable for transit traffic and increase our transport system’s competitiveness on the global services market. Our Government approved Russian transport strategy until 2030. Our respondents suggest the growth of regional transport development after 2030:

Our respondents expect the reduction of benefits for passenger after 2021:

Mobile apps make our lives easier. According to our respondents after the boom of 2016-2020 their popularity and development will stabilize.

These days, cities are getting clogged like anything because more and more cars are being added every day. It is putting pressure not just on environment but on road and parking space as well. Forecast of the emergence of new parking spaces from our respondents:

Here is the the total results of round 1:

After the first round we provide our respondents the results and gave the chance to vote for the second time. Here is the the total results of round 2:

Technology

Above his graphs account for global market forecast that shows from 2016 to 2020, from 2021 to 2030 and from 2031 to 2040. However below graphs accounts for Russian market with same different 3 periods.

We asked respondents 5 different core technologies of transportation development with Delphi questionnaires of 2 rounds. The result of technology between round 1 and round 2 shows same trends of global market and Russian market, therefore, Round 2 could represent overall result including round2.

There are 5 technologies that we asked expertise high speed railway, intelligent rail network, new tariff system, low carbon emission technology and big data system. As a results, most technologies will come or be developed in global market by 2030 however new tariff system and high speed railway entirely will be done by 2030 thorough Delphi questionnaire. In spite of emerging trend and development of low carbon emission technology, there were slight number of respondents said that some technologies will come to global market from 2030 to 2040 as well as intelligent rail network system and big data system for transportation.

In Russian market, its trends of each technologies in Russian market compared global market seem that come to its market approximately 10 years later than global market except new tariff system which would be done by 2030. Surprisingly, both highly experienced experts and low level of experienced expert said that intelligent railway network will come to Russian market only after 2020 though Russian Railway company (RZD) and its stakeholders are doing several projects that develops transportation.

Especially, in order to increase national competiveness, it is recommended to take into more account environmental matters through the result of questionnaires.

Policy Measures

Regarding our policy measures Delphi survey, we select five different policy measures which are Incentive to cycle sharing company, Regulation to eco-friendly production, Airlines corporation to increase routes, increasing parking space and incentive/ tax deduction to private transport sectors. We ask two question from our respondents in two rounds;

Ø Which is the most important three policy measures?

Ø Are you ready to Support this measure from your own budget?

First Round

More than 80% of our respondents think that incentive / tax deduction to private transport sector is the most imprtant policy measures as compare to others. Parking space is the second important policy measure which were chosen by 70% of the total respondents. On the other hand, we analyse there is not clear picture for the third most important measure and we have the same number of vote (61%) for Airline corportation to increase routes and Regulation for Eco-friendly production, despite the fact that 5 out of 6 expert respondents believe that third most important policy measure is regulation for eco-friendly production which shows the expertise level and their common vision.

Our respondents look little shaky when we ask the question to support these measures by their own budget. Regulation to eco-friendly production is the first policy measure chosen by 30% our total respondents and the second and third policy measures are parking space and airline coorporation to increase routes which shows the representation of 21% of our total respondents and these second and third policy measure have the same number of votes with same number of expert and non-expert respondents.

Second Round

After analysing the result of first round and showing them to our respondents, we ask the same question to our respondents. We found that respondents chose the two same most important measures which they chose in fist round such as regulation to eco-friendly production and incentive/tax deduction to private transport compny. Interestingly, we find the third important measures in second round is incentive to cycle sharing company which was not chosen as a most important measures in first round and most important thing we found that this change has been occur because of changing the perception of our expert respondent because 5 out of 6 experts respondent change their decision to select this incentive to cycle sharing measures which they do not select in first round.

The same changes has also been observed when we ask to support these measures from own budget. Two of the measures are same which our respondents can support from their own budget such as regulation to eco-friendly production and parking space but the third measures is incentive to cycle sharing company which was in the least position in first round.

Conclusion

Wildcards

After the voting, we prepared the wildcards for other groups:

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