Погрешность исследований решений

Исследования по оценке и принятию решений страдают и еще от одной проблемы, на которую редко обращают внимание, но которая имеет глубокий скрытый смысл:

Исследования решений и оценок проводятся людьми, подверженными тем же предубеждениям и ошибкам, что и их субъекты.

Из этого безвыходного факта следует, что выводы об оценках и решениях — которые, в конечном счете, тоже являются рядом оценок и решений, — уязвимы со стороны самых различных предубеждений и ошибок.

Например, так же как субъекты чрезмерно уверены в своих ответах, исследователи могут быть чрезмерно уверены в своих теориях. Точно так же исследователи подвержены когнитивно-

му диссонансу и ловушкам инвестирования, и, пожалуй, с полным основанием можно заключить, что во многих случаях вложения в проделанную работу заставляют исследователей попадаться в «мышеловки». Как отмечали Джоел Брокнер и Джеффри Рубин (1985, с. 260) в последних строках своей книги о «мышеловках»: «Хорошие исследователи мышеловок — как и сами субъекты в том или ином опыте — должны знать, как оценивать свои действия в большей перспективе вещей».

Барух Фишхофф (1991) в дальнейшем сделал наблюдение, что исследователи, которые ожидают или хотят увидеть феномен, могут переоценить частоту его возникновения (поскольку совпадения между теорией и данными эксперимента более заметны, нежели отсутствие связи). Как итог эвристики доступности, частота и/или доступность связей легко может вызвать переоценку, и у исследователей может возникнуть иллюзия — или, по крайней мере, чувство преувеличения — корреляции между теорией и фактами. Эта возможность подтверждается исследованиями избирательного восприятия, предвзятости и стойкости ложной уверенности перед лицом опровергающих доказательств (например, Лорд, Росс и Леппер, 1979; Росс, Леппер и Хаббард, 1975).

Вероятно, наиболее серьезной проблемой является то, что исследователи склонны к предвзятости согласия и самоудовлетворенным пророчествам (Дженкинс, 1981; Розенталь, 1976). Одно из наиболее драматичных исследований на эту тему (а также одно из наиболее увлекательных) провели Роберт Розенталь и Кермит Фоуд в 1963 году. Розенталь и Фоуд предложили двенадцати исследователям принять участие в «настоящем» эксперименте либо с «умными» крысами, либо с «глупыми» крысами (на самом деле крыс разбивали на группы случайно). Каждому из участников дали по пять крыс и попросили зафиксировать результаты, которые животные покажут в 50 опытах на прохождение лабиринтов.

Получив отчеты, Розенталь и Фоуд обнаружили, что «умные» крысы справлялись с заданиями на 50% лучше, чем «глупые». Итак, несмотря на то что животные были выбраны случайным образом, исследователи получили результаты, которые ожидали получить.

Исследование оценки и принятия решений является темой следующего парадокса: если их результаты верны (т.е. предубеж-

дения и ловушки существуют), значит эти результаты в какой-то степени сами подвержены предубеждениям, ошибкам и ловушкам. В то же самое время, если результаты неверны (т.е. предубеждений и ловушек не существует), то эти результаты тем более ошибочны. В любом случае ловушки и ошибки явно существуют. Этот парадокс напоминает теорему незавершенности австрийского логика Курта Гёделя, которая говорит о том, что любая математически правомочная завершенность и система формальной логики должны быть внутренне несовместимы.

Конечно, предубеждения и ошибки не определяют исследования принятия решений больше, чем они определяют другие исследовательские предприятия. Но дело в том, что как бы ни сопротивлялись этому исследователи принятия решений, они должны включать и самих себя в расчет, когда говорят о человеческих ошибках. Цель этих заключительных замечаний — сделать шаг в этом направлении, даже если это удастся сделать только способом, описанным Б. Ф. Скиннером (1980):

Я представлял отношение человека к своему собственному поведению, описывая лектора, объясняющего человеческое поведение, в том числе поведение других лекторов, а затем, спускаясь с кафедры, со вздохом заключающего «Да и я тоже такой'»

Рекомендуемая литература

Если Вы хотите прочесть больше о психологии оценки и принятия решений, я рекомендую вам обратиться к следующим книгам: За общим обзором принятия решений в деловой сфере:

• Russo, J. Е., & Schoemaker, P. J. Н. (1989). Decision traps: Ten barriers to brilliant decision making and how to overcome them. New York: Simon & Schuster.

• Bazerman, M. H. (1990). Judgment in managerial decision making (2nd ed.). New York: John Wiley & Sons.

• Hogarth, R. (1987), Judgement and choice (2nd ed.). New York: John Wiley & Sons.

За нетехническим обзором, не сосредоточенным на деловой сфере:

• Dawes, R. M. (1988). Rational choice in an uncertain world. San Diego: Harcourt Brace Jovanovich.

• Nisbett, R. E , & Ross, L (1980). Human inference: Strategies and shortcomings of social judgment. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall.

• Gilovich, T. (1991). How we know what am 'tso. New York: Free Press.

Кроме того, Cambridge University Press опубликовало три антологии, первая из которых широко отмечена как современная классическая работа:

• Kahneman, D., Slovic, P., & Tversky, A. (Eds.). (1982). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press.

• Arkes, H. R., & Hammond, K. R. (Eds.). (1986). Judgment and decision making: An interdisciplinary reader. Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press

• Bell, D. E., Raiffa, H., & Tversky, A. (Eds.). (1988). Decision making: Descriptive, normative, and prescriptive interactions. Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press.

В Чикагском университете также опубликована неплохая коллекция бесед из симпозиума, посвященного памяти исследователя решений Хиллел Эйнхорн.

• Hogarth, R. M. (Ed.). (1990). Insights in decision making: A tribute to Hillel J. Einhorn. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.

Если вы хотите узнать больше об эффектах формулировки:

• Schuman, H., & Presser, S. (1981). Questions and answers in attitude surveys: Experiments on question form, wording, and context. Orlando, FL: Academic Press.

• Hogarth, R. (Ed.). (1982). New directions for methodology of social and behavioral science: Question framing and response consistency. San Francisco: Jossey-Bass.

• Sudman, S., & Bradburn, N. M. (1982). Asking questions: A practical guide to questionnaire design. San Francisco: Jossey-Bass.

И, наконец, если вы хотите узнать больше о проблемах социальной психологии оценки и принятия решений, я рекомендую:

• Aronson, E. (1991). The social animal (6th rev. ed.). San Francisco: W. H. Freeman and Company.

• Zimbardo, P. G., & Leippe, M. (1991). The psychology of attitude change and social influence. New York: McGraw-Hill.

• Cialdini, R. B. (1988). Influence: Science and practice (2nd ed.). Glen-view, IL: Scott, Foresman.

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