Consequences of Unemployment
• Consequences for the Government (Fiscal Policy)
– Increased spending on unemployment benefits and other income –related state welfare payments
– Fall in revenue from income tax and taxes on consumer spending
– Fall in profits – reduction in revenue from corporation tax
– May lead to rise in government borrowing (i.e. a budget deficit)
• Consequences for the economy as a whole
– Lost output (real GDP) from people being out of work – the economy will be operating well within its production frontier
– Unemployment seen as an inefficient way of allocating resources – labour market failure?
– Some of the long-term unemployed may leave the labour force permanently – fall in potential GDP
– Increase in the inequality – rise in relative poverty
14. IS curve, LM curve, IS-LM model basic- Equilibrium in the goods and money markets
¢ The IS curve shows all the combinations of interest rates i and outputs Y for which the goods market is in equilibrium
¢ However, a simplifying assumption we made initially was that investment I was exogenous
l We know that investment actually depends negatively on the level of interest
Definition
The IS-LM (Investment Saving – Liquidity (Liquidity means how quickly you can get your hands on your cash.) Preference Money Supply) model is a macroeconomic model that graphically represents two intersecting curves. The investment/saving (IS) curve is a variation of the income-expenditure model incorporating market interest rates (demand), while the liquidity preference/money supply equilibrium (LM) curve represents the amount of money available for investing (supply).
The model explains the decisions made by investors when it comes to investments with the amount of money available and the interest they will receive. Equilibrium is achieved when the amount invested equals the amount available to invest. [1]
Despite many shortcomings, the IS-LM model has been one of the main tools for macroeconomic teaching and policy analysis. The IS-LM model describes the aggregate demand of the economy using the relationship between output and interest rates.
In a closed economy, in the goods market, a rise in interest rate reduces aggregate demand, usually investment demand and/or demand for consumer durables. This lowers the level of output and results in equating the quantity demanded with the quantity produced. This condition is equal to the condition that planned investment equals saving. The negative relationship between interest rate and output is known as the IS curve.
The second relationship deals with the money market, where the quantity of money demanded increases with aggregate income and decreases with the interest rate. [2]
Origin
Articles in June 1936 by David Champernowne and W. Briam Reddaway were followed by three papers presented to an Econometric Society session at New College, Oxford on 26 September 1936 by Roy F. Harrod, James E. Meade and J. R. Hicks that gave birth to the IS-LM model. While all five articles reduced the aggregate demand analysis of John Maynard Keynes’ General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money to small systems of simultaneous equations, economics teaching was shaped by the diagram that Hicks labeled SI-LL which later Alvin Hanses relabeled as showing IS and LM curves in 1949. Although Hicks is credited with the invention of the IS-LM, it is also worth knowing that he was privy to Harrod’s paper for the system of equations and Meade’s paper for notation before writing his own. [3]
The IS Curve
The IS curve tells you all combinations of Y and r that equilibrate the output market, given that firms are willing to supply any amount that’s demanded. That is, the IS is the set of all Y and r combinations that satisfy the output market equilibrium condition that total demand given income Y and the cost of borrowing r must equal total supply:
Yd(Y, r) = Y.
Notice the Y on the left hand side stands for income (because consumption demand depends on income) while the Y on the right hand side stands for total supply. We are justified in using the same symbol for both things because according to the basic national income accounting identity, whatever quantity is supplied creates income of the same amount. In turn, total demand
(Yd) can be broken up into the sum of consumption demand, investment demand, government demand, and net foreign demand:
Yd (Y, r) = Cd + Id + Gd +NXd
where NX stands for net exports (that is, exports minus imports), so how much more foreign countries demand from us than we demand from them. C is aggregate consumer spending (a difference between disposable income and taxes), I is planned investments, and G is government spending.
The LM Curve
The LM curve tells you all combinations of Y and r that equilibrate the money market, given the economy’s nominal money supply M and price level P. That is, the LM curve is the set of all Y and r combinations that satisfy the money market equilibrium condition, real money demand must equal the given real money supply:
Md(Y,r) =M/P
Notice the real money supply on the right hand side is fixed when drawing the LM; any change in the real money supply shifts the entire curve. Assuming real money demand depends positively on the amount of real transacting Y and negatively on the opportunity cost of holding money r, the LM is an upward sloping curve, with steepness depending on how sensitive real money demand is to changes in r. [4]