Фгбоу впо «пензенский государственный
МИНИСТЕРСТВО ОБРАЗОВАНИЯ И НАУКИ РОССИЙСКОЙ ФЕДЕРАЦИИ
ФГБОУ ВПО «ПЕНЗЕНСКИЙ ГОСУДАРСТВЕННЫЙ
УНИВЕРСИТЕТ АРХИТЕКТУРЫ И СТРОИТЕЛЬСТВА»
ФАКУЛЬТЕТ ЗАОЧНОГО И ОТКРЫТОГО ОБРАЗОВАНИЯ
Реферат
по дисциплине «Деловой иностранный язык»
(перевод с английского на русский)
На тему: Economy and Economic Cycles
(Экономика и экономические циклы)
Выполнила: студентка группы
МЕН-12м/з Иванова В. И.
Проверила: к.ф.н., доцент Солманидина Н.В.
Пенза 2017
Economy and Economic Cycles
We start with the economy. Not a big surprise in a book titled 101 Things Everyone Should Know about Economics. By way of definition, the economy is a system to allocate scarce resources to provide the things we need. That system includes the production, distribution, consumption, and exchange of goods and services. It is about what we do as a society to support ourselves, and about how we exchange what we do to take advantage of our skills, land, labor, and capital.
Of course, that definition is a bit oversimplified. The economy is really a fabulously complicated mechanism that hums along at high speed—the speed of light with today’s technology—to facilitate production and consumption. The economy itself is fairly abstract, but touches us as individuals with things like income, consumption, savings, and investments, or more concretely, with money, food, cars, fuel, and savings for college.
One could only wish ours was a “steady state” economy—that it would always provide exactly what we need when we needed it. Unfortunately, it isn’t so simple. The economy is directly influenced by a huge, disconnected aggregation of individual decisions. There is no “central” planning for the economy (yes, it’s been tried, but doesn’t work for a variety of reasons), although governments, central banks, and other economic authorities can influence its direction. Because the economy functions on millions of small decisions, the economy is subject to error—overproduction and overconsumption, for example. Take these errors, add in a few unforeseen events, and the result is that economies go through cycles of strength and weakness.
The first fifteen entries describe the economy, economic cycles, economic results, and some of the measures economists use to measure economic activity.
INCOME
Income is the money we receive in order to buy what we need when we need it. Economists look at income in several different ways—including where it comes from, how much is earned, and how much of what is earned can really be spent. Income includes the following money flows: wages to labor, profit to businesses and enterprise, interest to capital, and rent to land.
What You Should Know
Income is what people earn through either direct labor or as owners of investments. The amount of income we earn as individuals and families connects to the economy’s prosperity and strength. It dictates how much we can ultimately spend and the value we bring to the economy as a whole. The amount of income earned collectively as a country determines the economic health of a nation and of groups within it.
Economists look at national income (covered further under #4 GDP), per capita income (income generated per person), and household income (how much income is generated by the average household). In all but the worst times, incomes should rise as people accomplish more by becoming more skilled and productive at their jobs and in their businesses. Economists also speak of real income increases—that is, increases adjusted for inflation, as opposed to nominal increases, which represent the raw numbers but not necessarily true income growth.
Economists also consider disposable income, or the amount of income actually available for individuals and families to spend after taxes. Disposable income is a truer indicator of how much purchasing power we really have, and how much of that purchasing power will ultimately be available to drive the economy and create more income.
The Census Bureau measures income annually through the American Community Survey. Income figures are published in the financial press and can be seen in greater detail on the U.S. Census Bureau’s website: www.census.gov/hhes/www/income/income.html.
You can see how income is distributed among different population groups or states, as well as overall income growth. The annual press release will contain statements like: “Real median household income in the United States declined by 1.5 percent between 2010 and 2011, reaching $50,054.” The decline in median household incomes—some 8.1 percent since 2007—has been persistent, and is one of the reasons that our leaders are so concerned about the economy these days.
Why You Should Care
Most of you probably care more about your personal income than that of the nation or others around you! Your own income ultimately determines your purchasing power and is a key factor in your overall quality of life. If your income isn’t increasing—or worse, if it is decreasing—you know that’s not a good thing, and you might have to adjust your way of life.
Watching published income figures helps you keep tabs on the ups and downs of the economy. By itself that may or may not interest you, depending on your profession or general level of interest in national success. However, if you track national, household, and per capita income changes and compare them with your own, you can see whether you’re gaining or losing ground.
Income changes can also be useful as a measuring stick for other economic factors, like growth in asset prices. During the real estate boom, for example, home prices far outpaced gains in income. Smart economists knew this couldn’t last forever. Either incomes had to rise (to keep pace) or home prices had to stabilize or fall (to allow incomes to catch up). So watching gains in income can be a good test to make sure other economic changes make sense.
See also: #2 Consumption, #4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and #14 Distribution of Income and Wealth.
CONSUMPTION
Quite simply, consumption is what we, in aggregate, consume. And like income, the measurement of consumption at a national level helps us understand whether the economy is getting weaker or stronger. As an individual, you have more control over consumption than income, so it’s important to monitor your consumption to be certain you can make ends meet.
What You Should Know
Economists track personal consumption expenditures (PCE). As the term implies, PCE represents funds spent on goods and services for individual consumption. “Goods” breaks down into durable goods—goods expected to have a useful life greater than three years, like cars and lawnmowers—and nondurable goods like food, paper products, cleaning supplies, and so forth. Personal consumption expenditures exist in addition to private business investment, providing goods and services for export, and government consumption of goods and services.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (www.bea.gov) monitors and publishes PCE reports; the Bureau of Labor Statistics (www.bls.gov) gives longer histories and projections for PCE. Since consumption accounts for some 71 percent of the total U.S. economy, a small change in PCE can signal a big change in prosperity ahead.
Why You Should Care
At a national level, during the boom years prior to the Great Recession, low interest rates, easy credit, and low-cost imported goods combined to cause a consumption bubble of massive proportions; the Great Recession was in part an unwinding of that bubble. Savings rates (covered in the next entry) went from negative to moderately positive as consumers became more conservative. This caution has brought consumption back to more sustainable levels—that is, somewhat less than income and more in line with income growth.
That’s a good thing on a national basis. The key for you as an individual is to make sure your own PCE is in line with your income and income growth. And if you’re an investor, monthly PCE reports can give you an insight to where the economy is headed.
SAVING AND INVESTMENT
The personal saving rate is defined, very simply, as the percent of personal income that is not consumed. In specific economic terms, it is personal disposable income minus personal consumption expenditures. In real-world terms, it’s money you don’t spend today but instead put aside to spend tomorrow.
Investment, on the other hand, is an allocation of goods or capital not to be used just for current but also future production. Over time, when an economy is in balance, saving should equal investment; that is, the money, or wealth, put aside should be invested, or used, for future consumption.
Granted, that sounds a bit complicated and theoretical. As a practical matter, it’s more interesting to look at saving as it has really occurred over time. It’s also more interesting to think about how saving and investment should occur in your own household.
What You Should Know
First, it’s important to distinguish “saving” from “savings.” Saving is the setting aside of surplus funds—that is, what you don’t spend. Savings refers to the actual accounts, like your savings accounts, in which you do it. The level of “saving,” not “savings,” is what’s really important for you and for the economy as a whole.
Consumer saving, until recently, had been on the skids for quite some time. For many years we were a nation of savers: in the 1960s saving was 6 to 10 percent of income, and rose to a level as high as 14 percent briefly in the recessionary period of 1975 (yes, saving rises during economic hardship; see #35 Paradox of Thrift).
In the late 1970s, saving rates started to decline because of high inflation rates—people needed more of their income to meet expenses and came to expect the purchasing power of their savings to diminish. Saving rates fell back to the 8 to 10 percent range, still healthy by today’s standards. The 1982 recession increased it to 12 percent; that peak foreshadowed a long, slow decline into the 6 to 8 percent range by the late 1980s, down to 2 percent in the late 1990s, and hitting negative territory by 2005. It has hovered near zero since then; however, in the aftermath of the Great Recession, the savings rate rose to about 5 percent, as people feared for their jobs and incomes, and has settled a bit to the 3 percent range. That sudden return to saving, ironically, hampered the recovery (see #35 Paradox of Thrift).
Why You Should Care
Until the Great Recession hit, most Americans fell into a trap of increased consumption, the prioritization of “now” over the future. We felt the “wealth effect” (see #15) of higher house prices, cheaper goods mainly from China, stable incomes, and strong marketing messages. Saving took a back seat, despite dire warnings about the future of Social Security and retirement. The combination of weak income growth, unemployment, and asset price declines brought a sudden end to the party. The message, of course: prudent Americans should choose the path of sustained wealth, placing savings as first priority and buying only what we can afford. You should invest those savings for returns in the future, as should society as a whole.
What You Should Know
The calculation of GDP boils down to a sum of four items: Personal consumption plus total personal and business investment plus public or government consumption plus net exports (exports minus imports). It is thus a measure of what is consumed today (consumption) plus what is put aside for tomorrow (investment) plus our net sales to others around the world. That combined figure in turn roughly represents the income we as a nation produce from all of those activities.
Economists track both the size and the change in GDP. The U.S. GDP in 2012 was just over $14.5 trillion, but with the effects of the Great Recession, the average annual growth rate dropped from 3.2 percent (1997–2007) to an average of 0.7 percent from 2005 to 2010. More recently, it has returned to a still rather anemic 1.5 to 2 percent. GDP dropped 6.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008, one of the sharpest declines on record, and a true measure of the severity of the Great Recession. At that time it should be noted that other economies fared worse—Germany’s GDP went down 14.4 percent, Japan’s 15.2 percent, and Mexico’s declined by 21.5 percent in the same period. However, their base GDPs are much smaller, so the value lost in the decline was less.
The breakdown of U.S. GDP components (from 2012) is also interesting:
| Personal consumption | 71% |
| Personal and business investment | 15% |
| Public, or government, consumption | 17% |
| Exports | 13% |
| Imports | −16% |
The good news is that exports have increased about 2 percent since 2008, while imports dropped about 1 percent (influenced in a large measure by reduced dependence on foreign oil). Also, the public/government consumption share has declined about 2 percent, signaling less reliance on that sector. But dependence on consumption still remains high, as the following figures for China will show:
| Personal consumption | 35% |
| Personal and business investment | 48% |
| Public, or government consumption | 13% |
| Exports | 30% |
| Imports | −26% |
China, in contrast to the United States, is foregoing current consumption to build for the future, although the trade balance has shifted about 5 percent away from exports and toward imports—perhaps bad for China, but good for the rest of the world.
The GDP is also an important measure of standard of living. Economists measure GDP per capita—that is, per person in a nation. Here, the U.S. at $47,150 (World Bank figure from 2012) is on solid footing, although not at the top of the pack (twelve nations, including Norway, Denmark, Australia, and Qatar, are ahead on this measure). As well, economic wealth isn’t the only component of standard of living; the less measurable safety, health, leisure time, and climate go beyond GDP per capita as components of true living standards (though these are sometimes separated out as components of quality of living).
Why You Should Care
The GDP is the broadest measure of the country’s overall economic health, and it defines the economic “pie” you ultimately enjoy a slice of. If it is healthy and growing, times are good; if it is stagnant or declining, it will most likely affect your standard of living, sooner or later.
What You Should Know
Economists closely watch the unemployment rate as a signal of overall economic health. High unemployment is a sign that an economy is weak currently and will remain so. Why? Obviously, if people are losing jobs, demand is most likely falling, as are incomes and purchasing power. When people lose jobs, they can afford less, home foreclosures rise, they can save less for retirement, and their future becomes more grim in general.
Economists also recognize that there is no such thing as a true, 100 percent, full-employment economy. Some unemployment is structural; that is, created by changing job requirements—there simply aren’t as many jobs for autoworkers or office clerks these days. Some is frictional, caused by the natural changes businesses make and that people make to their lives, moving from one place to another. Some is seasonal, the result of a decline in certain jobs that are tied to particular times of the year (for example, sales clerks in retail stores during the Christmas holidays). As a result, economists suggest that an unemployment rate of about 4 percent represents “full employment.”
Why You Should Care
Obviously, when unemployment is on the rise, it suggests a reduction in business activity, which means you should be more fearful for your job as well. You should do whatever you can to make yourself more employable, including building new skills or becoming more indispensable on your job, by building expertise and credibility within your own organization. You should also develop contingency plans, including savings cushions and prospects for perhaps doing your job as an independent contractor. Long-term employment with big companies still happens, but is less the norm than ten or twenty years ago; it has become more of a “free agent” economy, and you should hold nothing back in becoming part of it. Aside from keeping an eye on the unemployment rate in order to protect your job, it’s a smart way to monitor the pulse of the economy, which will affect your investments, your company if you’re a small-business owner, and your tax revenues if you’re in the public sector.
RECESSIONS
The U.S. National Bureau of Economic Research defines a recession as a period with “a significant decline in economic activity spread across the country, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP growth, real personal income, employment (nonfarm payrolls), industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.” During that time business profits typically decline as well. As a result, public-sector tax revenue also falls.
What You Should Know
Many call it a recession simply when a country’s GDP declines two calendar quarters in a row, or when the unemployment rate rises 1.5 percent in less than twelve months.
Technical definitions aside, perhaps Harry Truman had the best definition of a recession, and how it differs from a depression: “It’s a recession when your neighbor loses his job; it’s a depression when you lose yours.”
Recessions can be notoriously hard to forecast. For instance, how many really predicted the Great Recession, and especially its severity? When things are going well, we tend to become complacent, even optimistic, about the idea that anything can go wrong. We’ve grown accustomed to federal government intervention to prevent recessions by lowering interest rates and taking other measures to stimulate the economy (see #8 Business Cycle). Even the markets can’t tell us much; as economist Paul Samuelson famously stated: “The stock market has forecasted nine of the last five recessions.”
The National Bureau of Economic Research, the U.S. government organization generally responsible for identifying recessions, has noted ten recessions since World War II. As you can see from the table, recessions are generally short in duration—lasting less than a year—and typically happen about twice a decade.
The most recent of these, the so-called Great Recession, was also the largest since World War II, with a drop in GDP from peak to trough of 5.1 percent. By contrast, from August 1929 through March 1933, during the Great Depression, the GDP dropped 26.7 percent—hence “Depression” instead of “Recession.”
Why You Should Care
Recessions mean less for everybody, and unless you have a pile of money or are in a business largely immune to downturns, you should prepare to make adjustments when recession clouds start to gather. Warning signs include changes in the employment rate, an excess of debt, or “irrational exuberance” in some or all markets (like dot-com stocks in 2000 and real estate in 2006). You should learn to recognize when times are good, and use those times to save some money.
You should also watch to make sure your standard of living is matched to the worst, not to the best, of times. In good times, avoid allowing your lifestyle to consume all of your income, and worse, to put you into debt. If you do, you’ll have the flexibility to get through the bad times.
Доход
Доход-это деньги, которые мы получаем для того, чтобы купить то, что нам нужно, и когда нам это нужно. Экономисты смотрят на доход различными способами, в том числе, откуда он берется, сколько заработано, и сколько то, что заработали реально может быть потрачено. Доход включает в себя следующие денежные потоки: заработная плата труда, прибыль предприятия, проценты на капитал, и аренды на землю.
Что Вам следует знать.
Доход-это то, что люди зарабатывают с помощью трудовой деятельности или в качестве владельцев инвестиций. Мы зарабатываем доход, тогда как отдельные лица и семьи подключается к процветанию и силе экономики. Он определяет, сколько мы можем потратить и в конечном счете какую ценность мы представляем для экономики в целом. Размер дохода в совокупности по стране определяет экономическое здоровье нации и групп в нем.
Экономисты смотрят на национальный доход (рассмотрен далее под #4 ВВП), доход на душу населения (доход на человека) и доход семьи (сколько дохода среднего домохозяйства). Во всех, кроме нелучших времен, доход должен расти, так как люди добиваются большего, становятся более квалифицированными и продуктивными в своей работе и в своем бизнесе. Экономисты также говорят увеличивается—это реальный доход, увеличивается с учетом инфляции, в отличие от номинального, что представляют собой необработанные данные, не обязательно верные росты доходов.
Экономисты также учитывают располагаемый доход, или сумму дохода, которая действительно доступна для отдельных лиц и семей, и то что можно потратить после уплаты налогов. Располагаемый доход-это правдивый индикатор, он показывает, что покупательская способность у нас действительно есть, и то что покупательская способность в конечном счете управляет экономикой и создает дополнительный доход.
Бюро переписи населения измеряют ежегодно доход по итогам исследования американского общества. Цифры доходов публикуются в финансовой прессе, и можно увидеть более подробно на сайте Бюро переписи населения США: www.census.gov/hhes/www/income/income.html.
Вы можете увидеть, как распределяется доход среди различных групп населения или государства, а также общий рост доходов. Ежегодный пресс-релиз содержит заявления типа: “реальный средний доход домашних хозяйств в США сократилось на 1,5 процента между 2010 и 2011 годом, достигнув $50,054”. Снижение средних бытовых доходов—на 8,1 процента в 2007 году был постоянным, и это одна из причин того, что лидеры так озабочены экономикой в наши дни.
Потребление
Попросту говоря, потребление — это то, что мы, в совокупности, потребляем. И как доход, измерения потребления на национальном уровне помогает нам понять, действительно ли экономика становится слабее или сильнее. Как частное лицо, вы имеете больше контроля над потреблением, чем над доходами, поэтому очень важно контролировать потребление, чтобы убедиться, что вы можете свести концы с концами.
Что вам следует знать.
Экономисты отслеживают расходы на личное потребление (PCE). Как термин потребление, представляет собой средства, потраченные на товары и услуги для индивидуального потребления. “Товар” включает в себя: товары длительного пользования—товары, как ожидается, имеют срок полезного использования более трех лет, как автомобили и газонокосилки—и краткосрочные товары, как продукты питания, бумажные изделия, моющие средства и так далее. Существуют личные расходы на потребление в дополнение к частному бизнесу инвестициям, предоставление товаров и услуг на экспорт и государственное потребление товаров и услуг.
Бюро экономического анализа (www.bea.gov) отслеживает и публикует доклады потребления; Бюро статистики труда (www.bls.gov) дает больше исследований и прогнозов по потреблению. Так как потребление составляет около 71% от общей экономики США, небольшое изменение прогноза может означать большие перемены благосостояния нации.
Сбережения и инвестиции
Норма личных сбережений определяется очень просто, как процент личного дохода, которая не потребляется. В конкретных экономических условиях, это личный располагаемый доход за вычетом расходов на личное потребление. В реальных условиях, это деньги, которые вы сегодня не тратите, но вместо этого, откладываете в сторону, для того чтобы потратить завтра.
Инвестиции, с другой стороны, это выделение товаров или капитала, которые будут использоваться не только для текущего, но и для будущего производства. Наступит время, когда экономика будет находится в равновесии, сбережения должны будут равны инвестициям; то есть деньги, или богатство, которые отложили должны быть инвестированы или использованы, для будущего потребления.
Конечно, это звучит немного сложнее теоретически. С практической точки зрения интересно понаблюдать за сбережениями как это будет действительно происходить с течением времени. Также интересно наблюдать за тем, как сбережения и инвестиции взаимодействуют.
Что вам следует знать.
Во-первых, важно различать “экономия” от “сбережений”. Экономия заключается в отмене избыточных средств—это, что Вы не тратите. Сбережения относятся к фактическим счетам, как например сберегательные счета. Уровень “экономии”, а не “сбережений,” то, что действительно важно для вас и для экономики в целом.
Экономия потребителей, до недавнего времени, являлось нормой в течение достаточно долгого времени. На протяжении многих лет мы были нацией вкладчиков: в 1960-х годах экономия была от 6 до 10 процентов от дохода, и вырос до уровня 14 процентов в период рецессии 1975 года (да, экономия возрастает во время экономических трудностей; см. #35 парадокс бережливости).
В конце 1970-х годов, тарифы начали снижаться из-за высокой ставки инфляции, людям нужен высокий доход для покрытия расходов и пришли к пониманию, что покупательская способность их сбережений уменьшается. Уровень сбережений упал с 8 до 10 процентов, все-таки являясь пока не стабильным по нынешним меркам. Рецессия 1982 возросла до 12 процентов, что предвещало долгое, медленное падение с 6 до 8 процентов в конце 1980-х годов, до 2% в конце 1990-х годов, и уйдя в минус к 2005 году. Он колеблется около нуля с тех пор; однако, в связи с последствиями Великой рецессии, уровень сбережений вырос до 5 процентов, так как люди опасались за свои рабочие места и доходы уменьшились до 3 процентов. Это внезапное возвращение к экономии, по иронии судьбы, затруднило развитие (см. #35 Парадокс Бережливости).
Что следует знать.
Расчета ВВП сводится к совокупности четырех элементов: личное потребление, общие личные и деловые инвестиции, общественное и государственное потребление, плюс чистый экспорт (экспорт минус импорт). Таким образом, это показатель того, что потребляется сегодня (потребление) плюс то, что отложил на завтра (инвестиции) плюс наши чистые продажи в другие страны мира. Это комбинированный показатель, в свою очередь, приблизительно показывает доход, который мы как нация, получаем от всех видов деятельности.
Экономисты отслеживают размер и изменение ВВП. ВВП США в 2012 году составил чуть более 14,5 трлн долларов, но с последствиями Великой рецессии, среднегодовые темпы роста сократились с 3,2 процента (1997-2007) в среднем на 0,7% в период с 2005 по 2010 год. Еще совсем недавно, он вернулся к прежнему 1,5 до 2 процентов. ВВП снизился на 6,3% в четвертом квартале 2008 года, один из наиболее значительных спадов как серьезное последствие тяжелого времени Великой рецессии. В то время следует отметить, что в других странах дела обстоят еще хуже—ВВП Германии снизился на 14,4%, в Японии на 15,2 процента, а в Мексике сократился на 21,5% за тот же период. Однако, их база ВВП намного меньше, поэтому их стоимость снижения была меньше.
Распад компонентов ВВП США (с 2012) тоже интересен:
| Личное потребление | 71% |
| Личные и деловые инвестиции | 15% |
| Общественное, или государственное потребление | 17% |
| Экспорт | 13% |
| Импорт | -16% |
Хорошей новостью является то, что экспорт вырос примерно на 2% с 2008 года, в то время как импорт снизился на 1% (влияет в значительной степени на снижение зависимость от иностранной нефти). Кроме того, общественные/государственные доли потребления сократились примерно на 2%, показывая меньшую надежность в этом секторе. Но зависимость от потребления по-прежнему остается высокой, следующие показатели потребления будут продемонстрированы для Китая:
| Личное потребление | 35% |
| Личные и деловые инвестиции | 48% |
| Общественное или государственное потребление | 13% |
| Экспорт | 30% |
| Импорт | -26% |
Китай, в отличие от США, больше потребляет, чтобы строить будущее, хотя торговый баланс сместился примерно на 5 процентов от экспорта в сторону импорта —может быть плохо для Китая, но хорошо для всего остального мира.
ВВП также является важным показателем уровня жизни. Экономисты измеряют ВВП на душу населения—то есть, на одного человека в стране. В США 47,150 $(Всемирный банк 2012 года) является устойчивым, хотя и не занимает первого места по данному показателю (впереди по данному показателю 12 наций, в том числе Норвегия, Дания, Австралия и Катар). Экономическое благосостояние-это не единственный компонент уровня жизни; безопасность, охрана здоровья, досуг и климат, помимо ВВП на душу населения являются составляющими истинного жизненного уровня (хотя это иногда отделяется в качестве компонентов качества жизни).
Что вам следует знать.
Экономисты внимательно просматривают уровень безработицы для того чтобы определить сигнал общего экономического роста. Высокий уровень безработицы является признаком того, что в настоящее время экономика слаба и отстаёт. Почему? Очевидно, что, если люди теряют работу, спрос скорее всего падает, как и доходы, и затем покупательская способность. Когда люди теряют работу, они могут позволить себе меньше, выкупы долгов растут, они могут сохранить все меньше пенсию, и их будущее становится все более мрачным в целом.
Экономисты также признают, что нет такого показателя на 100% полной занятости экономики. Безработица является структурной, то есть, создана путем технологических изменений в производстве—есть работа, но не так много рабочих мест для работников автомобильной промышленности или офисных секретарей в наши дни. Так же существует и фрикционная безработица, вызванная естественными изменениями бизнеса и то что люди, делают для своих жизней, перемещаясь из одного места в другое. Безработица носит так же и сезонный характер, в результате сокращения определенных рабочих мест, которые привязаны к конкретному времени года (например, продавцы в розничных магазинах во время рождественских праздников). В результате, экономисты предполагают, что уровень безработицы около 4% соответствует “полной занятости”.
Рецессии
США Национальное Бюро экономических исследований определяет рецессию как период “значительного снижения экономической активности по всей стране, длящееся более нескольких месяцев, обычно заметны в росте реального ВВП, реальных доходов населения, занятости (количество занятых в несельскохозяйственном секторе), промышленное производство, и оптово-розничные продажи.” За это время прибыль предприятия, как правило, также снижается. В результате, государственные налоговые поступления также падают.
Что вам следует знать.
Многие назовут это просто спад, когда ВВП страны снижается два календарных квартала подряд, или, когда уровень безработицы вырос на 1,5 процента меньше, чем за двенадцать месяцев.
Технических определений, кроме, пожалуй, как сказал Гарри Трумэн был лучшим определением рецессии, и чем он отличается от депрессии: “это рецессия, когда ваш сосед теряет работу, а депрессия, когда вы теряете свою.”
Рецессии могут быть трудны для прогнозирования. Например, как на самом деле предсказали Великую рецессию, и особенности ее тяжести? Когда дела идут хорошо, мы склонны успокаиваться, и не думаем, что что-то может пойти не так.
Мы привыкли к вмешательству федерального правительства, чтобы предотвратить рецессии, понизив процентные ставки и приняв другие меры, чтобы стимулировать экономику (см.#8 Бизнес - цикл). Даже рынки не могут предотвратить их; экономист Пол Самуэльсон заявил: “Фондовый рынок предсказал девять из последних пяти рецессий”.
Национальное бюро экономических исследований, американская правительственная организация, ответственная за идентификацию рецессий, отметило десять рецессий начиная со Второй мировой войны. Как Вы видите рецессии вообще коротки в продолжительности — длящийся меньше чем год — и как правило происходят дважды в десятилетии.
Новая из них, так называемая Великая рецессия, была также самой большой начиная со Второй мировой войны с понижением ВВП от подъема до спада на 5.1 процентов. В отличие от этого, с августа 1929 до марта 1933, во время Великой Депрессии, ВВП понизился на 26.7 процентов — следовательно это уже “Депрессия” вместо “Рецессии”.
МИНИСТЕРСТВО ОБРАЗОВАНИЯ И НАУКИ РОССИЙСКОЙ ФЕДЕРАЦИИ
ФГБОУ ВПО «ПЕНЗЕНСКИЙ ГОСУДАРСТВЕННЫЙ
УНИВЕРСИТЕТ АРХИТЕКТУРЫ И СТРОИТЕЛЬСТВА»
ФАКУЛЬТЕТ ЗАОЧНОГО И ОТКРЫТОГО ОБРАЗОВАНИЯ
Реферат
по дисциплине «Деловой иностранный язык»
(перевод с английского на русский)
На тему: Economy and Economic Cycles
(Экономика и экономические циклы)
Выполнила: студентка группы
МЕН-12м/з Иванова В. И.
Проверила: к.ф.н., доцент Солманидина Н.В.
Пенза 2017
Economy and Economic Cycles
We start with the economy. Not a big surprise in a book titled 101 Things Everyone Should Know about Economics. By way of definition, the economy is a system to allocate scarce resources to provide the things we need. That system includes the production, distribution, consumption, and exchange of goods and services. It is about what we do as a society to support ourselves, and about how we exchange what we do to take advantage of our skills, land, labor, and capital.
Of course, that definition is a bit oversimplified. The economy is really a fabulously complicated mechanism that hums along at high speed—the speed of light with today’s technology—to facilitate production and consumption. The economy itself is fairly abstract, but touches us as individuals with things like income, consumption, savings, and investments, or more concretely, with money, food, cars, fuel, and savings for college.
One could only wish ours was a “steady state” economy—that it would always provide exactly what we need when we needed it. Unfortunately, it isn’t so simple. The economy is directly influenced by a huge, disconnected aggregation of individual decisions. There is no “central” planning for the economy (yes, it’s been tried, but doesn’t work for a variety of reasons), although governments, central banks, and other economic authorities can influence its direction. Because the economy functions on millions of small decisions, the economy is subject to error—overproduction and overconsumption, for example. Take these errors, add in a few unforeseen events, and the result is that economies go through cycles of strength and weakness.
The first fifteen entries describe the economy, economic cycles, economic results, and some of the measures economists use to measure economic activity.
INCOME
Income is the money we receive in order to buy what we need when we need it. Economists look at income in several different ways—including where it comes from, how much is earned, and how much of what is earned can really be spent. Income includes the following money flows: wages to labor, profit to businesses and enterprise, interest to capital, and rent to land.
What You Should Know
Income is what people earn through either direct labor or as owners of investments. The amount of income we earn as individuals and families connects to the economy’s prosperity and strength. It dictates how much we can ultimately spend and the value we bring to the economy as a whole. The amount of income earned collectively as a country determines the economic health of a nation and of groups within it.
Economists look at national income (covered further under #4 GDP), per capita income (income generated per person), and household income (how much income is generated by the average household). In all but the worst times, incomes should rise as people accomplish more by becoming more skilled and productive at their jobs and in their businesses. Economists also speak of real income increases—that is, increases adjusted for inflation, as opposed to nominal increases, which represent the raw numbers but not necessarily true income growth.
Economists also consider disposable income, or the amount of income actually available for individuals and families to spend after taxes. Disposable income is a truer indicator of how much purchasing power we really have, and how much of that purchasing power will ultimately be available to drive the economy and create more income.
The Census Bureau measures income annually through the American Community Survey. Income figures are published in the financial press and can be seen in greater detail on the U.S. Census Bureau’s website: www.census.gov/hhes/www/income/income.html.
You can see how income is distributed among different population groups or states, as well as overall income growth. The annual press release will contain statements like: “Real median household income in the United States declined by 1.5 percent between 2010 and 2011, reaching $50,054.” The decline in median household incomes—some 8.1 percent since 2007—has been persistent, and is one of the reasons that our leaders are so concerned about the economy these days.
Why You Should Care
Most of you probably care more about your personal income than that of the nation or others around you! Your own income ultimately determines your purchasing power and is a key factor in your overall quality of life. If your income isn’t increasing—or worse, if it is decreasing—you know that’s not a good thing, and you might have to adjust your way of life.
Watching published income figures helps you keep tabs on the ups and downs of the economy. By itself that may or may not interest you, depending on your profession or general level of interest in national success. However, if you track national, household, and per capita income changes and compare them with your own, you can see whether you’re gaining or losing ground.
Income changes can also be useful as a measuring stick for other economic factors, like growth in asset prices. During the real estate boom, for example, home prices far outpaced gains in income. Smart economists knew this couldn’t last forever. Either incomes had to rise (to keep pace) or home prices had to stabilize or fall (to allow incomes to catch up). So watching gains in income can be a good test to make sure other economic changes make sense.
See also: #2 Consumption, #4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and #14 Distribution of Income and Wealth.
CONSUMPTION
Quite simply, consumption is what we, in aggregate, consume. And like income, the measurement of consumption at a national level helps us understand whether the economy is getting weaker or stronger. As an individual, you have more control over consumption than income, so it’s important to monitor your consumption to be certain you can make ends meet.
What You Should Know
Economists track personal consumption expenditures (PCE). As the term implies, PCE represents funds spent on goods and services for individual consumption. “Goods” breaks down into durable goods—goods expected to have a useful life greater than three years, like cars and lawnmowers—and nondurable goods like food, paper products, cleaning supplies, and so forth. Personal consumption expenditures exist in addition to private business investment, providing goods and services for export, and government consumption of goods and services.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (www.bea.gov) monitors and publishes PCE reports; the Bureau of Labor Statistics (www.bls.gov) gives longer histories and projections for PCE. Since consumption accounts for some 71 percent of the total U.S. economy, a small change in PCE can signal a big change in prosperity ahead.
Why You Should Care
At a national level, during the boom years prior to the Great Recession, low interest rates, easy credit, and low-cost imported goods combined to cause a consumption bubble of massive proportions; the Great Recession was in part an unwinding of that bubble. Savings rates (covered in the next entry) went from negative to moderately positive as consumers became more conservative. This caution has brought consumption back to more sustainable levels—that is, somewhat less than income and more in line with income growth.
That’s a good thing on a national basis. The key for you as an individual is to make sure your own PCE is in line with your income and income growth. And if you’re an investor, monthly PCE reports can give you an insight to where the economy is headed.
SAVING AND INVESTMENT
The personal saving rate is defined, very simply, as the percent of personal income that is not consumed. In specific economic terms, it is personal disposable income minus personal consumption expenditures. In real-world terms, it’s money you don’t spend today but instead put aside to spend tomorrow.
Investment, on the other hand, is an allocation of goods or capital not to be used just for current but also future production. Over time, when an economy is in balance, saving should equal investment; that is, the money, or wealth, put aside should be invested, or used, for future consumption.
Granted, that sounds a bit complicated and theoretical. As a practical matter, it’s more interesting to look at saving as it has really occurred over time. It’s also more interesting to think about how saving and investment should occur in your own household.
What You Should Know
First, it’s important to distinguish “saving” from “savings.” Saving is the setting aside of surplus funds—that is, what you don’t spend. Savings refers to the actual accounts, like your savings accounts, in which you do it. The level of “saving,” not “savings,” is what’s really important for you and for the economy as a whole.
Consumer saving, until recently, had been on the skids for quite some time. For many years we were a nation of savers: in the 1960s saving was 6 to 10 percent of income, and rose to a level as high as 14 percent briefly in the recessionary period of 1975 (yes, saving rises during economic hardship; see #35 Paradox of Thrift).
In the late 1970s, saving rates started to decline because of high inflation rates—people needed more of their income to meet expenses and came to expect the purchasing power of their savings to diminish. Saving rates fell back to the 8 to 10 percent range, still healthy by today’s standards. The 1982 recession increased it to 12 percent; that peak foreshadowed a long, slow decline into the 6 to 8 percent range by the late 1980s, down to 2 percent in the late 1990s, and hitting negative territory by 2005. It has hovered near zero since then; however, in the aftermath of the Great Recession, the savings rate rose to about 5 percent, as people feared for their jobs and incomes, and has settled a bit to the 3 percent range. That sudden return to saving, ironically, hampered the recovery (see #35 Paradox of Thrift).
Why You Should Care
Until the Great Recession hit, most Americans fell into a trap of increased consumption, the prioritization of “now” over the future. We felt the “wealth effect” (see #15) of higher house prices, cheaper goods mainly from China, stable incomes, and strong marketing messages. Saving took a back seat, despite dire warnings about the future of Social Security and retirement. The combination of weak income growth, unemployment, and asset price declines brought a sudden end to the party. The message, of course: prudent Americans should choose the path of sustained wealth, placing savings as first priority and buying only what we can afford. You should invest those savings for returns in the future, as should society as a whole.